Category: 2 – Technical Trader

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The pick list is currently treading water, consistent with the market as a whole. It currently shows an average gain of 0.3% on an average holding period of 15 calendar days, including currently open picks and those that have hit stops over the past week. Yawn. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

1/9/24 Meanwhile, last year ended well with picks closed in December averaging a gain of 12.8%, with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. This was the best monthly performance since I started this exercise 3 years ago. The tweaks applied over that time have trended in the right direction but there have been less satisfactory months too. Non-subscribers click here for access.

So far in January, closed picks have had an average gain of 4.4% on an average holding period of 29 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Over the past two trading sessions there were 46 charts with a second buy signal on the week, and 161 with a second sell signal. That looks bearish on the surface, but when I reviewed those 161 charts, I did not see many that appeared to have near term downside potential. Instead, most looked like rangebound mush, or at a potential bounce point. Ultimately, I liked 2 charts on the buy side and 5 on the sell side, and added them to the list as shown on the table below. That will leave 17 open picks – 8 buys and 9 shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

I will start tracking the new picks based on a price assuming a half position at the open and half at the close today, January 17, 2024. I have added or adjusted stops on most of the picks. See the current stop levels on the table. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

My picks are starting off the new year on the wrong foot, but I want to give them a bit more rope before concluding that all those sell signals at the end of December were wrong. Meanwhile, last year ended well with picks closed in December averaging a gain of 12.8%, with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. This was the best monthly performance since I started this exercise 3 years ago. The tweaks applied over that time have trended in the right direction but there have been less satisfactory months too. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

For the first week of the new year, closed picks have had an average gain of 6.1% on an average holding period of 29 calendar days. Currently open picks and those that have hit stops over the past week have an average loss of 1.6% on an average holding period of 11 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Over the past two trading sessions there were 41 charts with a second buy signal on the week, and 49 with a second sell signal. Not a ringing endorsement for a directional market, but I reviewed the charts for promising patterns, nevertheless. I liked 3 charts on the buy side and added them to the list as shown on the table below. I did not like any of the sells. There are enough shorts on the list already, and we need a reset for those to avoid hitting the stops I set. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

In my last post before the holidays, I saw what I thought was the great idea of buying the lagging dogs. Based on yesterday’s market action, maybe that wasn’t such a good idea after all. It’s too soon to know for sure, but I started the review this morning with the idea that it would be prudent to place stops below key support levels, in case no rebound is coming. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

12/20/23 As the market has melted up the screens continue to generate far more buy signals than sell signals. Over the past 3 days there have been 145 charts with a second buy signal over the prior week and just 39 with second sell signals. These buy signals mostly came in the context of charts that had already been trending upward for weeks. In some cases, the signals indicated trends that appeared to be heading for a parabolic stage.

On the long side I am not prepared to chase buy signals on stocks that are going parabolic. The exit signals are likely to come too late to snag profits. However, there were a surprising number of good traditional setups. These stocks are laggards. There are always late-stage movers in any big market move. So I chose to add 9 of these that will hopefully be in that class. I am adding these without stops as usual.

My conclusion about those lagging positive setups now looks misplaced, but I’ll give them a little rope, placing stops just below key trend support levels. I still like the structures of most of the patterns, so I’m not ready to cut and run yet. Non-subscribers click here for access.

In reviewing the screen output, I wasn’t moved by any of the longs. There are enough on the list already. Non-subscribers click here for access.

On the short side, most of the sell signals came on charts just coming off a new high. Normally I don’t like to short stocks in uptrends, but I had an urge to go top fishing here, so decided to go for limited exposure while being willing to accept a bit of short-term pain. I settled on 8 charts that I liked the most. These are listed on the table below. I decided to start the tracking based on adding a half position at the opening price and a half at the closing price, as of today January 3, 2024. Non-subscribers click here for access.

We started with 12 picks since the last update, all longs. 3 hit stops over the 12 days since the last report. The rest are open. As of Tuesday’s close, the average theoretical gain on the existing picks, including both those still open and those closed out was 9.9%, with an average holding period of 25 calendar days. That’s down from the prior report’s average gain of 16.6%, with an average holding period of 26 days, thanks to the last group of picks getting crunched yesterday. Non-subscribers click here for access.

10 picks were closed out in December. 8 were profitable. Including all closeouts during the month, the average gain was 12.8%, with an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

This was the best monthly performance since I started this exercise 3 years ago. The tweaks applied over that time have trended in the right direction despite a few bad months. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

As the market has melted up the screens continue to generate far more buy signals than sell signals. Over the past 3 days there have been 145 charts with a second buy signal over the prior week and just 39 with second sell signals. These buy signals mostly came in the context of charts that had already been trending upward for weeks. In some cases, the signals indicated trends that appeared to be heading for a parabolic stage.   Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

I reviewed all of the charts from the screen results. Forget the sell signals. The chart structures simply do not look viable as shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

On the long side I am not prepared to chase buy signals on stocks that are going parabolic. The exit signals are likely to come too late to snag profits. However, there were a surprising number of good traditional setups. These stocks are laggards. There are always late-stage movers in any big market move. So I chose to add 9 of these that will hopefully be in that class. I am adding these without stops as usual. Non-subscribers click here for access.

We came into last week with 5 longs and 2 shorts on the list. I had stop prices on all of them. Two shorts and one long hit their stops, and I had elected in the last report to close another long as of December 11. That left just 3 longs on the list. Non-subscribers click here for access.

9 picks have been closed out in December so far. 7 were profitable. Including all 9 closeouts, the average gain was 5.3%, with an average holding period of 20 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

As of Tuesday’s close, the average theoretical gain on the existing picks, including both those still open and those closed out was 16.8%, with an average holding period of 26 calendar days. That’s up from the prior week’s average gain of 11.8%, with an average holding period of 24 days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

12/5/23 November was a good month with 10 of 12 closed picks registering gains. Closed picks had an average gain of 5% with an average holding period of 20 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.

The screens generated more buys than sell signals on Friday continuing a string that has lasted many weeks. It came after two days with a majority of sell signals during the week. But the numbers were small and remain small as the advance matures. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

For the week ended Friday, there were 28 charts with a second buy signal in a week, and 14 with a second sell signal. Friday’s raw totals were a surprising 31 to 29. Call it a virtual tie. One of the buys was a bearish gold stock ETF.

I reviewed all of the charts from today’s screen results. Based on typically sloppy market behavior around the holidays I am reluctant to add any stocks to the list during this period. None of the charts was so compelling that I would add them in mid December when cross currents are even more prevalent than usual.

We came into last week with 10 longs and 2 shorts on the list. I had stop prices on all of them. 5 of the longs hit their stops. That left 8 longs and 2 shorts on the list to start this week. I have added or adjusted stops on all of them and will remove one as of Monday’s opening price. This is with the intent of closing out the longs as this rally ages.

As of Monday’s close, the average theoretical gain on the existing picks was 11.8% with an average holding period of 24 calendar days. That’s little changed from the prior week’s average gain of 11.9%, with an average holding period of 24 days.

Five picks have been closed out in December so far. 4 were profitable. Including all 5 closeouts, the average gain was 9.2%, with an average holding period of 28 calendar days.

Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.