Category: 2 – Technical Trader

Expecting a 6-month cycle low in the past couple of weeks led me to have a bullish bias in selecting swing trade picks from the screens. I focused on the buy side and ignored the sell side. That was a mistake with a cost, with the list showing an average loss of 2.8% with a average holding period of 20 calendar days through Monday. Last week I had added stops to most of the list, and most of those got hit. That left only 5 open picks for the coming week. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

I missed a big opportunity on the short side over the past month. Unfortunately, the decline has aged to the point that it is probably too late to be looking to add shorts. So I continue to be on the lookout more for buy side opportunities. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The riddle lies in whether this might be the first leg of a new cyclical bear market. In that case, the downside may persist longer than has been the case over the past year. So, as I reviewed the screen output I wanted to be open to good sell side setups too. Non-subscribers click here for access.

There were numerous charts to visually review with an output of 76 on the buy side and 89 on the sell side. There were numerous whipsaw signals with charts showing up on both ledgers. Again, the sells already appeared to have run their course. I found only one chart that I liked enough to add on the sell side. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Conversely, I liked 6 on the buy side. This may be the definition of insanity after getting it wrong repeatedly over the past 3 weeks. But as time goes on the odds grow that the 6-month cycle upturn will show up sooner rather than later. The charts I reviewed led me to go with that probability. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The changes made this week will leave the list with 11 longs and just one short as shown on the table in the report.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.

I narrowed the final double check to Friday only this week since Friday’s hard selloff fully negated Thursday’s gains. The buys and sells were small in number and nearly the same on both sides with just 29 on the buy side and 30 on the sell side. Surprising. Had Thursday’s signals been included, the sells would have overwhelmed the buys.

After reviewing all the charts with final signals I added just one pick on the buy side (see table below) and no sells. The one buy was a gold stock, hardly a bullish omen. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.

Using the new extended period filters, last week there were just 19 final buy signals against 67 sell signals. I looked at all of the charts and added none this week. The list is already loaded with buys, and I didn’t like the charts on the sell side. Either they had already been declining for too many weeks, or they were still in uptrends, with prices dipping to support. Neither setup represents ideal entry points for reduced risk, high reward. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Picks closed out in August had an average theoretical gain of 3.7% on an average theoretical holding period of 26 calendar days, just under 4 weeks. With the revised methodology, I’d like to see that stretched out a bit more.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

8/7/23 July had been difficult. After starting off with a string of losses on closed picks, the month ended at dead breakeven on the basis of a good last two weeks. Just 59% of the picks were winners, and the result was only a breakeven. I marvel at those options tout services who report 1000% gains month after month. But I wonder why they don’t own the world.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

7/10/23 June was solid, with 25 picks closed at an average theoretical gain of 9.7% on an average holding period of 36 calendar days.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.

This week, I am starting a new screening mode which in theory should result in fewer false signals. In the interest of saving time, and generating fewer, but hopefully more reliable signals, I am dropping screens for cycle periods of shorter than 6 weeks. There were too many false signals, wasting too much of my time reviewing too many charts. Therefore, I have decided to focus on minimum cycle periods of 6 weeks and 10 weeks. I’m still requiring 2 signals during the week, including one on the last two days.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Using the new method, there were 22 buy side charts to review, and 13 on the sell side. None of the sells were interesting. However, I liked 10 of the 22 charts on the buy side and am adding those to the list, as shown on the table below. Due to the late posting, I will begin tracking these as of the 2 PM print on Tuesday, September 5.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

One existing buy pick and five existing shorts hit stops last week. After these changes, and including the 10 new picks, there will be 21 longs and 1 short on the list this week. The short is likely to be stopped out, which would leave the list 100% long, and heavy. Not a comfortable look, but I have to go with what I see. These charts look good.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

The new picks will be added without stops. Picks added last week will remain without stops. I have adjusted stops on some of the older picks. I assume risk mitigation through diversification and small position sizes. However, because the list is virtually long only, this represents a high degree of market risk, given the principle of synchronicity.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Last week was less successful than the prior week, with an average theoretical gain of 4% on an average holding period of 18 calendar days. That compared with 5.7% on an average holding period of 19 calendar days the previous week. The numbers assume all cash, no leverage, no margin, no options.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Picks closed out in August had an average theoretical gain of 3.7% on an average theoretical holding period of 26 calendar days, just under 4 weeks. With the revised methodology, I’d like to see that stretched out a bit more.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

8/7/23 July had been difficult. After starting off with a string of losses on closed picks, the month ended at dead breakeven on the basis of a good last two weeks. Just 59% of the picks were winners, and the result was only a breakeven. I marvel at those options tout services who report 1000% gains month after month. But I wonder why they don’t own the world.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

7/10/23 June was solid, with 25 picks closed at an average theoretical gain of 9.7% on an average holding period of 36 calendar days.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.

The screens produced 29 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days. There were 25 charts with a second sell signal. Those were small numbers on both sides by recent standards. I reviewed all of the charts and found 7 that I liked as buys and no shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

2 existing buys and 1 existing short on the list hit stops last week. After these changes, and including the 7 new picks, there will be 12 longs and 4 shorts on the list this week. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The new picks will be added without stops. I have assumed risk mitigation through diversification and small position sizes. I have added or adjusted stops on all of the existing picks. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Last week was a decent week, with an average theoretical gain of 5.7% on an average holding period of 19 calendar days. That compared with an average theoretical gain of 4.2% on an average holding period of 17 calendar days the week before. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Picks closed out in August so far have had an average gain of 3.0% on an average holding period of 28 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

July was a breakeven month. June was strong with 25 picks closed at an average theoretical gain of 9.7% on an average holding period of 36 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

The numbers assume all cash, no leverage, no margin, no options. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

Table and charts in subscriber report.  Non-subscribers click here for access. 

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit.

Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical.

The public facing report is not the complete report. Only subscribers have access to the full report and regular tracking of the theoretical picks and closeouts made in the reports.