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Category: 2 – Technical Trader

Lee Adler’s proprietary cycle analysis with market trend and position ideas for investors and weekly individual stock swing trade ideas for traders. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

Swing Trade Chart Picks – Let’s Get Ready to Rumble

Lee Adler

Swing trade stock screens produced 57 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days of the past week. Five of those were inverse ETFs, for a net bullish total of 52. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

There were 95 charts with a second sell signal. Of those 95 sells, 22 were fixed income ETFs and 19 were foreign market ETFs. Only 54 were individual stocks, and a few of those were foreign stocks. More were interest sensitive utilities. So investors seem to dislike anything related to fixed income. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Overall there was no significant tilt to the signals on individual US stocks that are not directly tied to the fixed income outlook. Non-subscribers click here for access.

If you are interested in precious metals, a number of gold stocks and ETFs showed up on the sell side. I will update the Precious Metals Trader report on Friday morning. Non-subscribers click here for access.

5/8/23 Rangebound markets produce a preponderance of whipsaw signals, which is why I refer to them as meatgrinders. Eventually the market will break out and trend for a while. Until then, the string of small gains and losses is likely to continue. It’s a slow bleed that wears out both long and short traders. But it’s necessary to keep playing the game in order to catch the next big move when it comes.

That said, I have continued to review and select charts that appeared set up for a decent move in either direction, and I’ve been giving them a bit more rope, eschewing stops until the third or fourth week after the pick was made. That has resulted in the current active list having an average gain of 2% on an average holding period of 18 calendar days. It’s nothing to write home about, but given the market’s tight trading range and constant whipsaws, I’ll take it. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The list will have 12 open picks after closing out two shorts as of the open this morning. Of the 12 remaining open, just two are shorts, and 10 are longs. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Upon reviewing the charts with signals, I added 6 buys to the list, to be tracked starting with today’s opening price. I didn’t like any of the setups on the sell side, so added nothing there. The list will be lopsidedly long, which is risky, but it is what it is. I try to review the charts without bias. If I have a bias, it’s to the short side, and I still didn’t see anything I liked in that direction. Non-subscribers click here for access.

The new picks are shown on the table below (subscriber report). I have adjusted or added stops on several of the existing picks. I’ve left the rest stopless to give them time to “ripen.” Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

 

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The Twilight Zone

Lee Adler

“There is a sixth dimension beyond that which is known to man. It is a dimension as vast as space, and as timeless as infinity. It is the middle ground between light and shadow — between man’s grasp and his reach; between science and superstition; between the pit of his fears and the sunlight of his knowledge.” – Rod Serling

Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Swing Trade Chart Picks – Buy Side Wins This Week

Lee Adler

There were 87 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days of the past two weeks. There were 55 with a second sell signal. But get this. Of those 55 sells, 30 were fixed income ETFs. Do you think that’s a sign? Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

I do not. These income ETFs have been tightly rangebound in a flat range for months, with constant whipsaws. So it’s difficult to conclude that this is the big one. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Overall, I want to caution again that with the market racing back and forth in a range, it has been months since the system has produced a string of winners. Therefore, I would not rely on these numbers as a market signal. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Rangebound markets produce a preponderance of whipsaw signals, which is why I refer to them as meatgrinders. Eventually the market will break out and trend for a while. Until then, the string of small gains and losses is likely to continue. It’s a slow bleed that wears out both long and short traders. But it’s necessary to keep playing the game in order to catch the next big move when it comes. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Upon reviewing the charts with signals, I was surprised to find several buy setups that looked decent. I didn’t like any of the shorts. I added 7 buys to the list, to be tracked starting with today’s opening price. Non-subscribers click here for access.

My sentimental long pick in the last report was the second best performer. Non-subscribers click here for access.

With the 7 new buys, the list will have 11 longs and 4 shorts. The new picks are shown on the table below. I have adjusted or added stops on several of the existing picks. I’ve left the rest stopless to give them time to “ripen.” Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

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There’s One Key this Week to the Stock Market Outlook

Lee Adler

The key to the longer term outlook lies in the shape of the xxxx xxxxx xxx xxxx that’s just starting.

Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Don’t Go Short if This One Thing Happens

Lee Adler

Market Bullback Was a Masterful Shakeout and Setup!

What’s a bullback? It’s a pullback where the bull herd just backs up and then charges.

A lot of traders were feeling vindicated in the pullback early last week, because the market “shouldn’t” be this high. But there are no “shoulds” in this business. There is only what “is.” And if the market xxxxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxx , it will probably do a lot of things that most traders, particularly those of the bearish persuasion, think shouldn’t happen. So here’s what to beware of. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Swing Trade Chart Picks – The Future is One Word – Baking Soda

Lee Adler

For the 5 day period ended April 25, there were 73 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days of the period. There were 33 with a second sell signal. A little surprising considering the bloodbath on Tuesday. However, many of the buy signals were generated on Monday. Tuesday’s action negated many of those. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

I would just caution that it has been months since the system has produced a string of winners, so I would not rely on these numbers as a market signal. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Rangebound markets produce a preponderance of whipsaw signals, which is why I call them  meatgrinders. Eventually the market will break out and trend for a while. Until then, the string of small losses is likely to continue. It’s a slow bleed that wears out both long and short traders. But it’s necessary to keep playing the game in order to catch the next big move when it comes. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Given the excitement of the selloff yesterday, I looked at the sell side output first. There were 4 charts early in the alphabetical order that I liked enough to put on the list starting with the opening print today. Non-subscribers click here for access.

On the buy side, while some would like more beans, Mr. Taggart thinks we’ve had enough. But there’s one stock that I’m adding for sentimental reasons. It’s CHD. Early in my career on Wall Street, in 1980, this stock was selling for the equivalent of around 20 cents a share, adjusted for splits. Over the next 45 years it gained 46,000%. In other words if you had bought $1000 worth of stock in 1980, today you’d have $4.6 million. For a company that makes baking soda, for gosh sakes. Respeck! Non-subscribers click here for access.

It’s a slow mover, but hey, maybe on the heels of this short term buy signal, this could be a core holding. What could be more defensive than baking soda? Let’s see what happens over the next 3-4 weeks. Throw in a little CLX and it could be explosive. LOL Non-subscribers click here for access.

Other than that, I’ll stay put there, with added or adjusted stops on several picks as shown on the table (subscriber version). Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

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Why Not Get Too Excited About Bearish Proclamations… Yet

Lee Adler

Don’t get too excited about that Friday flop last week. Here’s why.

Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Swing Trade Chart Picks – Four More Buys, Four More Buys

Lee Adler

For the week ended April 19, there were 116 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days of the period. There were just 10 with a second sell signal. Again, I wasn’t impressed with the trend structures on the sell side.  So there were no picks again on that side. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

On the buy side, I found 4 that look like they’re just getting started and I am adding those to the list, as shown on the table below. I will start tracking them as of today’s opening price. Non-subscribers click here for access.

5 existing picks hit stops over the last week. I will drop one long and one short as of the opening price today. I’ll leave the remaining longs on the list without stops. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

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Here’s How This Week Will Show Whether Bulls or Bears are in Trouble

Lee Adler

The S&P 500 closed smack on the trendline drawn on daily closing prices extended from the August 2022 and February 2023 highs. An up week this week would break that trendline. The bulls would then be in charge. If the market sells off this week, bears would then have the ball. We might even consider shorting opportunities, if you can believe that.

But are there any tells that suggest which way this will break? Yes. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Swing Trade Screen Picks – Still Tilt Buy

Lee Adler

For the week ended April 13, there were 66 charts with multiple buy signals as of the last two trading days. There were just 16 multiple sells. Upon visual review all I saw on the sell side were rangebound whipsaw signals – constant back and forth. I’m not about to guess which one of these might see follow through. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

On the buy side, there were many that were moving but had limited upside in the short run. I found 4 that look like they’re just getting started and I’ve added those to the list, as shown on the table below. I will start tracking them as of today’s opening price.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Of the 8 picks left over from last week, the longs did well, the shorts, not so much, as shown below. I’ve added stops to all of the shorts and one of the longs. The other two longs I’m letting ride.  Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

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