Menu Close

Category: 2 – Technical Trader

Lee Adler’s proprietary cycle analysis with market trend and position ideas for investors and weekly individual stock swing trade ideas for traders. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

Less Support from the Fed Forces Re-evaluation of Stock Market

I am rescinding the comments I made last week about the long term trend. The Fed’s commitment to maintaining a bullish trend in stocks is now in doubt, and the long term indicators on the market index charts are ambiguous.

The outlook is rife with uncertainty. We don’t know when or if the Fed will re-deploy its tactical carpet bombing of deeply embedded, indigenous bearish forces.

It’s like the Viet Nam war. The Fed has overwhelming firepower, but it may not be committed to using it because of the astronomical long term cost fighting an entrenched enemy. We need to watch to the technical indicators closely to try to determine what each side is doing and will do, and which might have the upper hand.

Technical Trader subscribers, click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Try Lee Adler’s Technical Trader risk free for 90 days!  

The Fed Has Won the Battle

Massive Fed intervention has once again tilted the long term playing field. Evidence is increasing that we will not see the March low materially exceeded in nominal terms. This may have little meaning in terms of the future purchasing power of a dollar, but at least nominally the worst seems over. The Fed has won this round and is, for now, again in control of the stock market.

Technical Trader subscribers, click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Try Lee Adler’s Technical Trader risk free for 90 days!  

The Illusion of a Stock Market

Short term cycles are due for tops and little pullbacks at least. If it doesn’t happen, it would be another sign that the long term cycles are back in up phases. But are these cycles, or just the manifestation of the power of the Fed to create the illusion of a market?

How do you trade it? With one eye on the ground and the other to the sky. Walk this way.

Technical Trader subscribers, click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Try Lee Adler’s Technical Trader risk free for 90 days!  

What’s the Context, Bear or Bull?

What happens this week could tell us whether we’re in a bull or bear market.

As of 4:15 AM ET on Monday, virtually all of Thursday’s market gain has been wiped out. The S&P futures were trading at 2742, which would put the S&P cash index back below the centerline of the trend channel. Bears would have a foothold, but it’s where Monday finishes that matters, not where it starts.

Here are the critical parameters and levels you need to know to be positioned correctly.

Technical Trader subscribers, click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Try Lee Adler’s Technical Trader risk free for 90 days!  

Rebound! How to Trade It

Futures in the pre-market signal an end to the crash. Here’s what’s needed to maintain that and a few trade suggestions to take advantage.

Technical Trader subscribers, click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Try Lee Adler’s Technical Trader risk free for 90 days!  

Was That A 4 Year Cycle Low?

Massive Fed intervention turned the market, although cyclicality was favorable. The 6 month cycle low was overdue. But is it something more than that?

Technical Trader subscribers, click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Try Lee Adler’s Technical Trader risk free for 90 days!  

Here are More Short Chart Picks as New Projection Points to 1300

This market is a different breed of cat. Cycles have little or no influence. This is a fundamental collapse of liquidity. Traditional technical analysis is more useful. In that regard, the conventional measured move implication of the breakdown below the December 2018 low is 1350. Other techniques point to that area.

I’ve added a few new shorts to our trades list this week. Our initial pick now has a gain of 32.6% since entry on March 3, using no leverage.  Short sale margin is 50%. You can do the math.

Technical Trader subscribers, click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Try Lee Adler’s Technical Trader risk free for 90 days!  

Crash Channels Remain Intact, Long Term Signs Get Worse

The SPX has broken out of its original crash channel to the downside. It’s in a new channel with a slope of -46 points per day. Long term signals are already extremely negative, and are on the verge of turning catastrophic, cataclysmic, and apocalyptic.

I’ve run out of adjectives.

Technical Trader subscribers, click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Try Lee Adler’s Technical Trader risk free for 90 days! First time subscribers only.

Lock Limit Down

The S&P futures are trading limit down at 2812 as I write this at 2:50 AM Eastern Time in the US.

I suspect that the PPT will be in action over the next few hours. Whether they’ll be able to get it above support at 2850 or not is the question. And if they do, can they keep it there? If they fail, then we’re in line for an epic crash.

The cycle lineup suggests a low now, at least after this morning’s crash burns out. Here’s what to look out for.

Technical Trader subscribers, click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Try Lee Adler’s Technical Trader risk free for 90 days! First time subscribers only.

Time For “A” Bottom

The ferocity of the surprise attack has been breathtaking, and deeply troubling, but here’s why the ingredients for a short term low are in place.

Technical Trader subscribers, click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Try Lee Adler’s Technical Trader risk free for 90 days! First time subscribers only.

%d bloggers like this: