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Stock Market Heads for the Super Bowl – Oddsmakers Pick the Bulls

Lee Adler

The market has cleared the trendline from the January 2022 high, suggesting the end of this bear cycle. A new high above the December high would tend to confirm that. Clearing xxxx would allow room to run to xxxx+ over the next month.

This report tells you exactly what to look for this week, and what to do about it. Only one thing is certain. Don’t marry your stocks. Divorce can be messy and costly. Always do a prenup.

Now let’s grab some popcorn and get ready for the game. Fly, Eagles, Fly!

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non subscribers click here to access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Gold Takes a Breather

Lee Adler

Cycle projections suggest that gold has reached most of its potential for this move, but there’s clearance for a bigger move. Here’s what to expect along with a couple of miner chart picks.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscription Plans

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The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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Composite Liquidity Should Be Bearish, Here’s Why It’s Not Right Now

Lee Adler

Composite liquidity is flat and will remain so until the Fed restarts QE. That should be bearish, but it’s not right now. There are a couple of reasons for that. And they are reasons to hold off from looking to get short right now. But are they reason enough to go long? Here’s the answer.

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Swing Trade Screen Picks – Energetic Buys and Shorts

Lee Adler

The small list for last week started with two closeouts on Monday and one hold, resulting in an average net gain of 1.6% on an average holding period of 9 calendar days. This is not a success because I gave up too easily on the two electric utility shorts. Both were down substantially at the end of the week.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

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But the first rule of swing trading is not to lose money, and given the gyrations last week, in that regard, this result was ok. So, it’s time to look ahead, not backward. Learn from each experience and press on! Of course, the market usually forces us to unlearn what we just learned. 😄

For the week ended January 20, there were 11 charts with second or third buy signals as the week ended, and 49 with second or third sells. It makes me question the upside, but in reviewing the sell side charts, they all looked too early at best. I chose only one to add to the list. I liked 3 of the buys. Interestingly, they were natural gas and silver based. Non-subscribers click here for access.

Last week’s 2 picks that were closed out and the one still open are shown on the table below (subscriber report). I have added a trailing stop to that one. In addition, I’m adding the 4 new picks to the list as of the opening price on Monday January 23. Charts are below (subscriber report). Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

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Nothing is Broken

Lee Adler

The market’s little pullback last week didn’t break anything. The short term trend is in apparent consolidation while the intermediate term still looks to be upward.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycles– The 13 week cycle high is ideally due on xxxxxxxx, but up to 4 weeks of variance would be normal depending on the skew of longer cycles. The mid week pullback last week invalidated prior cycle projections. The target is now xxxxxxx. Short term cycles appear to have peaked. I expect a little more xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx before the rest of the 13 week cycle up phase plays out. Non subscribers click here to access.

Third Rail – The rally faces 3 resistance trends. The first is short term, running from 3xxx to xxxxx this week. The next is the long term trend from the market top in January 2022. That slides from xxxx to xxxx this week. Finally there’s an intermediate trendline running from xxxx to xxxx. If those are cleared, the first target is likely to be the xxxx xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

To reverse this, the market would first need to smash the lower short term uptrend channel line running from xxxx to xxxx this week. If they stay above that, then ultimately we might expect 2 more thrusts to a target of xxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Long Term Weekly Chart – The market has cleared the downtrend line from the January 2022 peak, but faces more resistance around xxxx. It must get past that to signal with greater certainty that the bear cycle is complete. Non subscribers click here to access.

Monthly Chart –The market will need to end January above xxxx to break the major downtrend channel. Non subscribers click here to access.

Cycle Screening Measures – I now rate the short term pattern xxxxxxx, while the intermediate term pattern deserves xxxxxxx x xxxxxx rating. It suggests xxxxxxx trading. So we wait for a xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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Gold Going Higher

Lee Adler

Technical signs point higher and higher, baby. But the miners need a coffee break.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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Swing Trade Screen Picks – Whoa! Just Wait Till Next Week!

Lee Adler

The 3 picks on the list last week had a zero week. The average change as of 10:20 AM ET this morning was +0.1% on an average holding period of 9 calendar days. But I do have one new long to add to the list that looks very interesting.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers click here for access.

Subscription Plans

The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor. This is a developmental and experimental exercise, for the purpose of providing experienced chart traders with ideas and concepts to use or not use as they see fit. 

Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. These picks are illustrative and theoretical. The method behind these picks is experimental, and may change over time.  I may trade my own account, and may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. My entry and close out levels are likely to differ from those published due to the exigencies of my trading style and time constraints. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports, nor the total of all subscribers taking positions, would do so in a size that would influence the market price. 

Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. You should not assume that recent performance as reported can or will be repeated in the future. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. When leverage is used the loss can exceed the account equity under certain conditions.

The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.

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Long Live the Bear. The Bear is Dead

Lee Adler

Well, maybe. It depends on what happens this week. Today, even. The cycle indicators give the edge to the bulls in the short run, but it ain’t over till it’s over. Here’s what we need to be watching.

Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

Non subscribers click here to access.

Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Debt Ceiling

Lee Adler

When we last looked at Primary Dealer positions and financing in November, it looked like the dealers were in dire straits. Massively leveraged in the bond inventories, with falling prices, and inadequately hedged. It looked like the beginning of the end.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

But it wasn’t. As she had in the past, in a different role, Janet Yellen rode to the rescue of the dealers, the bond market, and indirectly the stock market and stock investors. In December, as we noted at the time, the US Treasury began paying down T-bills, first in small amounts, and then in mass quantities. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

That made all the difference that was needed to prevent disaster, and to turn the outlook at least mildly bullish in the short run. The US Treasury was acting in loco parentis, or in this case, contra loco Fed. The Treasury pumped money into the market. The mechanism is different than when the Fed does it, but the effect is similar. Money goes into the markets. Securities prices rise. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

While I noted and reported this to you back in December it wasn’t clear to me why the Treasury was doing that. Call it a lack of situational awareness. Mea culpa. But now we know. And we also know what to expect. We’ve been here before. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

Here’s what happened, and what we can look forward to in the next several months. Non subscribers, click here to read this report.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Subscription Plans

KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

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Gold in Them Thar Hills

Lee Adler

Gold is in the process of a big base breakout with a new measured move implication that’s even higher than the last one. Miners look even better, and I have added a couple to the swing trade pick list.

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are informational and general in nature, and illustrative of one approach. They are not investment advice. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or even suitable for any particular investor.

Nothing in this letter is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trading involves risk of loss, and in the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested. Any trading that you do with reference to strategies and tactics suggested in this report should be done only after consulting with your financial adviser. Trade at your own risk. 

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