2/16/21 Every week I run technical stock screens covering all NYSE and NASD stocks trading above $6 and averaging more than 1 million shares a day. This typically results in between 15 and 50 charts to review visually. I’m looking for low risk, high reward price structures, which I’m not smart enough to program into the screening process. But it’s ok. I like to look at charts. 😊
List performance was stable last week, with the average gain remaining +2.6% on an average holding period of 9 days, down from 12 days the week before. This assumes cash trades, no margin, no options.
4 picks hit stop triggers, leaving 6 on the list. 3 of those are shorts. 3 are longs. I have adjusted stops on all of them.
Here’s the list performance by symbol last week along with updated closeouts, and adjusted stop levels (table in report- subscribers only). Click here to subscribe, 90 days risk free for first time. This assumes cash trades, no margin, no options.
I had been reluctant to add any over the course of the most recent upswing. That changed last week, with 5 shorts added to the list. On those rare occasions where I’ve added shorts in recent months, they have not worked. This time wasn’t quite as bad, as two of them have worked and one is a question mark. Two were stopped out last week
The current screen from charts as of the close on May 7, had 80 total signals with 70 buy signals against 10 sell signals. One of the sell signals was an inverse ETF, so the final score was 71 bullish, 9 bearish. That’s enough for a second wind signal for this uptrend. The score off the initial surge off the low on March 27 was 155 to 8.
The symbols in bold I’ll add to the chart pick list as of Monday’s open. There are 9, all longs, which will bring the list to 14 picks, of which 11 are longs, and 3 are shorts.
The stop price on the table below is a protective stop level, or a do not enter level if price is below on buys or above on sells on the open on Monday. Note that I avoid all biotechs because of their propensity for countertrend surprises. I typically also avoid REITs.
The total number of signals had been generally trending down since the March 27 surge of 163 signals, of which 155 were buys. This shrinkage is normal as a trend progresses. Initial surges occur at significant intermediate term turning points. They generate residual momentum for several weeks.
The upside momentum from that initial push then wanes. After that period of waning momentum, there’s often a second wind. Friday’s 71 buy signals suggests that that has happened here.
4/25/21 The current small edge to the buy side suggests that the uptrend is losing momentum. But we’d need to see a big increase in sell signals, with a big edge to that side, before a significant market downturn.
Last Wednesday there were 56 bearish signals. That’s enough to signal a pullback, but I think we need to see triple digits to see a full fledged intermediate correction, or possible major top. So for the time being, I’ll continue to favor the buy side, and view the charts with sell signals more skeptically.
On the whole, last week there were 168 buys and 96 sells, a spread of +72. That compares with the prior week’s 113 buys and 99 sells, or +14. I think that this is another sign of a second wind for this 6 month cycle up phase.
See the charts in the addenda (in full report, subscribers only).
Addenda- Charts (Subscribers only). Click here to subscribe, 90 days risk free for first time subscribers.
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These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance.