2/16/21 Every week I run technical stock screens covering all NYSE and NASD stocks trading above $6 and averaging more than 1 million shares a day. This typically results in between 15 and 50 charts to review visually. I’m looking for low risk, high reward price structures, which I’m not smart enough to program into the screening process. But it’s ok. I like to look at charts. 😊
I was worried that the list was going to have a very bad week, but in the end, it wasn’t even a flesh wound. In fact, it was just a scratch. We definitely took some hits as the extreme volatility caused stops to get triggered in both directions. List performance slipped to an average gain of +2.1%, down from +2.6% the week before, on an average holding period of 8 days, down from 9 days the week before. This assumes cash trades, no margin, no options.
10 picks hit stop triggers, leaving 4 on the list. All are longs, and all look well positioned for additional gains. I have adjusted stops on all of them.
Here’s the list performance by symbol last week, along with updated closeouts, and adjusted stop levels (Table in subscriber report). Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.
The current screen from charts as of the close on May 17, had 159 total signals with 153 buy signals against 6 sell signals. This is similar to the numbers coming off the lows on March 28. The spread then was 155 to 8. Friday, therefore looks like more than a second wind for an old 6 month cycle up phase. It looks like a new upthrust. It’s no surprise, given the immense amount of cash that the Fed and the US Treasury are pumping into Primary Dealer and other big institutional accounts.
14 of the buy signals were fixed income ETFs. It’s rare to see them on the list because they usually fail the minimum volume test. The potential rally in these should be a selling opportunity.
5/9/21 The total number of signals had been generally trending down since the March 27 surge of 163 signals, of which 155 were buys. This shrinkage is normal as a trend progresses. Initial surges occur at significant intermediate term turning points. They generate residual momentum for several weeks.
The upside momentum from that initial push then wanes. After that period of waning momentum, there’s often a second wind.
For the week as a whole, there were 224 buy signals and 125 sells, a spread of +99. That compares with 168 buys and 96 sells, a spread of +72, the week before. It was as if the vicious mid-week selloff never happened. I wish it hadn’t!
I have highlighted new picks on the raw data table below (in subscriber report). I’ll add them to the list as of Monday’s open price. There are 8, all longs. This will bring the list to 14 picks, once again back to all longs, after having a few shorts for a couple of weeks.
The stop price on the table below is a protective stop level, or a do not enter level if price is below the stop price on the open on Monday. Note that I avoid all biotechs because of their propensity for countertrend surprises. I typically also avoid REITs.
This table summarizes recent list performance. Current charts of new and open picks are below (in subscriber report).
|Week Ended||Gain/Loss||Average Days Held|
Addenda- Charts (Subscribers only).
Want to know what the new picks are, along with the winners and losers still on the list from last week? Subscribe to the Technical Trader service and find out! New subscribers can try it risk free for the first 90 days.
The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor.
These picks are illustrative and theoretical. Nothing in this letter is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. I may buy, sell, sell short or cover short, or have positions in any of the stocks on the list at any time, based on a particular trading style that is unique to me. I post these items in good faith for informational and educational purposes, and do not take positions in opposition to those which are published. All chart picks are actively traded stocks, and I assume that no subscriber to these reports would take positions in a size that would influence the market price.
Performance tracking assumes 100% cash basis, no margin, no options. Trading involves risk of loss. In the case of options, the loss can be 100% of the amount invested.
The opinions expressed here assume that readers are experienced investors or are working with an investment advisor.