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Nothing Has Happened Yet

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The 10-12 month cycle has now signaled that the expected top in this time frame is forming. But with longer cycles still in strong up phases, I’ll start with the assumption that the 10-12 month cycle will stay flat. That would only suggest a decline to xxxx (subscriber version only).

The 6 month cycle down phase is also under way, but it too could stay flat. The 13 week cycle, which had been trending, is uncertain. It’s due for a xxxx (subscriber version only) this week.

The early going this week should give us a tell on which scenario is more likely. This report gives you the tells to look for.

Short term cycles are clearly in down phases. But, down the whole list there are no projections. xxxx (subscriber version only) looks like the key level on the cycle chart. If it breaks, then the initial target would be xxxx, with more declines likely after that.

On the other hand if the xxxx (subscriber version only) area holds, or if there’s a strong rebound off xxxx, then it’s just another dip in the persistent uptrend.

On the third rail chart there’s a cluster of nearly parallel trendlines that rise from around xxxx to xxxx (subscriber version only) this week. They hold the key to whether this is just another BTFD moment, or the first sign of a real downturn in a very long time.

On the weekly chart, Friday’s pullback didn’t break any longer term trendlines. The market would need to end the week below xxxx (subscriber version only). to do so. 3-4 year cycle momentum exploded to its strongest level since 2014. This is another sign that the market could trend higher for longer.

The long term cycle projections of xxxx to xxxx (subscriber version only) are still viable, with highs due between now and next year.

On the monthly chart, the S&P 500 ended August at or above long term trend resistance around 4500. This suggested more upside. It needs to break xxxx (subscriber version only) in September to signal an end to the uptrend.

The long term cycle momentum indicator remains bullish.

Cycle screening measures broke the intermediate term bullish trend, setting it back to neutral. But the aggregate measure hit a line that suggests a short term bottom. If it breaks, then the bigger picture turns bearish.

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These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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