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Underweighting the Negative Signs

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Cycles The 13 week cycle up phase is maturing. The projection range is now xxxx-xxxx (subscriber version).  Around xxxx is trend support. Above there, the up phase stays in progress. A breakdown through that level would signal a down phase.

Short term cycles are moving sideways in flat down phases, due to strengthen within a week or so. That could carry the averages a little higher while the 13 week cycle is due to top out.

On the third rail chart Support is at xxxx (subscriber version). on Monday and rises to around xxxx at the end of the week. The market faces a cluster of resistance trendlines at xxxx on Monday, rising to xxxx at the end of the week. Clearing that would signal acceleration with a likely target of 4800. If they don’t clear, it would set up the possibility of a downside reversal, but the market would also need to break support around 4650 to signal more downside.

On the weekly chart, updated long term cycle projections as of October 10, 2021 show targets ranging from xxxxx to xxxxx for cycles of up to 7 years. The SPX is above the 18 month cycle channel extension, suggesting that the long term trend is accelerating toward a possible target of xxxxx (subscriber version) at the end of November.

Long term momentum indicators suggest higher for longer. They normally form negative divergences long before price peaks.

On the monthly chart, the market uptrend channel lower bound is at 4300 in November. They’d need to break that to show any sign of possibly ending the bull market. Clearing the long term trendline around xxxxx would set a course toward xxxxx in November and possibly xxxxx (subscriber version)  in December or January. The monthly long term cycle momentum indicator remains bullish.

Cycle screening measures sent quite a few indications that the market should be making a short term top here. But for the past year or more, the market averages have often trended higher on the basis of a few big stocks pushing the averages while perhaps the majority languished. So I will continue to underweight these indications.

Swing trade chart picks will be posted later Monday morning.

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These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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