I have determined that this is no longer a bull market. But neither is it yet a bear market. It’s one of the rarest of rare markets in technical analysis. It is a dog market. And it has the zoomies. It will chase around wildly, but not really go anywhere. This could last for a couple of months.
Cycles – The “weak” 13 week cycle up phase morphed into a meltup, but is still due to top out within xxxx xxxx (subscriber version).. A new cycle projection points to a target of xxxx xxxx. If it stops there, or doesn’t get there, the downtrend in the 10-12 month cycle wave would still be intact. However, short term cycle projections point to xxxx – xxxx.
There are signs that the 10-12 month cycle has bottomed, but this cycle has been dormant, so I am not giving these signs much weight yet.
The 6 month cycle has entered an up phase. The next cycle high is due in xxxx xxxx (subscriber version). It’s too soon to tell what shape the up phase will take, but not too soon to say that significant downside is xxxxxx before the summer.
Third Rail Chart – The bottom of a meltup channel rises from around 4300 to 4450 this week. If the SPX stays above that, the meltup remains in force. If it breaks, then look for support between xxxx and xxxx (subscriber version). Downtrending resistance starts the week at xxxx and descends to xxxx on Friday.
Monthly Chart – The mid March rebound has formed another equal width uptrend channel. Its lower line is around xxxx (subscriber version) in March and xxxx in April. Resistance is around 4650 in March and 4700 in April.
Cycle Screening Measures – The cycle screening aggregate has had a momentum thrust. These almost always mean higher prices to come. The short term and intermediate patterns are now both xxxx (subscriber version). The all-important six month cycle measures are now strongly xxxx. Smoothed measures are lagging and have not yet confirmed the turn. However, they could catch up if the rally continues early in the week.
These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance.