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Screens and Picks Keep Buy Side Tilt

The raw daily data for last week ended with a solid edge to the buy side. The final score for the week was 185 to 71, Buys over Sells. That compared with 187 to 146 Buys over Sells, the week before, and 188-153 in favor of Buys the week before that. The balance has been consistently tilted to the buy side since March 4. We were forewarned, but suspending disbelief was my psychological obstacle. Ideally, I would have gone with more buy picks last week, instead of just a lonely, one.

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The screen results come from a universe of approximately1200-1500 stocks daily that meet the criteria of trading above $6.00, and with average volume greater than a million shares per day. The final numbers show the number of stocks with at least one buy signal or sell signal during the week.

On Friday, March 18 alone, there were 21 buys and 10 sells. This tilt supports the strategy of staying mostly on the buy side for now.

I screened the lists of previous daily buys and sells from Monday through Thursday. From that output, I looked for additional signals in the progression on Thursday and Friday. The final lists resulted in 9 chart pick candidates on the buy side and 3 on the sell side. I reviewed those visually, and also looked at final signals triggered the week before.

After reviewing those charts, I chose 4 to add to the list (subscriber version only). All were on the buy side. This is a shift from the past 3 months when all picks were on the short sale side until last week. This will leave the list with 2 open shorts, both REITs, and 5 buys.

Last week we started with 7 picks on the list. One was a buy; the rest were short sales. 4 of them hit their trailing stops, and were closed out from the list as of that print. Including those and the picks still open at the end of the week gave us average gains of 5.3% with an average holding period of two weeks. Not bad, but a bit of giveback from the record 10% on an average holding period of 19 calendar days the week before. The percentage gain is based on 100% cash positions, with no margin and no use of leverage or options.

Had I been able to suspend my disbelief that the market might be turning, I would have added more buys last week. But the psychological stumbling blocks still remain, after all these years.

The new picks, along with picks that remain open, and those closed out last week, are shown on the table below (subscriber version only).

Charts of new and open picks are below that

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The strategy and tactics opinions expressed in this report illustrate one particular approach to trading. No representation is made that it is the best approach, or even suitable for any particular investor.

These picks are illustrative and theoretical. Nothing in this report is meant as individual investment advice and you should not construe it as such. Trade at your own risk. 

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