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Category: 1 – Liquidity Trader- Money Trends

How Fed and Treasury policy, Primary Dealers, real time Federal tax collections, foreign central banks, US banking system, and other factors that affect market liquidity, interact to drive the financial markets. Focus on trend direction of US bonds and stocks. Resulting market strategy and tactical ideas. 4-5 in depth reports each month. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!

Get Ready For Serial Market Crashes

The last time we looked at the Composite Liquidity Indicator (CLI), 4 months ago, I warned that the process of flattening the indicator was beginning, and that that would lead to bad things happening. Those bad things have been under way for a couple of months, but they have barely scratched the surface of the potential of what’s to come as this line turns flat. See chart (subscriber version).

The stock market is approaching the low side of its normal band of motion from the CLI. If history is any guide, the stock market will remain vulnerable to further severe declines until a week or two after the line representing the S&P 500 penetrates the bottom of the normal range of motion from the liquidity line.

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Then we face the prospect that liquidity could be even tighter than during the period of October 2017 to September 2019 when the Yellen Fed was temporarily “normalizing” its balance sheet. See chart (subscriber version).  The Fed is again threatening to begin shrinking the balance sheet. But this time around the market must absorb a far higher amount of new Treasury supply than it did in 2017-19, when the Fed last tightened.

Shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet now would pull cash out of the banking system, causing deposits to at least turn flat, if not shrink outright. I would have to bet that the Fed will never get to that point. The effects of merely holding QE at zero will be bad enough.

As for the War in Ukraine, it’s not helping, but stocks were already down nearly 9% the day that Putin attacked. Furthermore, historically, periods of war have been bullish for stocks. That’s because central banks have typically printed reams of money during wartime. Today, the Fed doesn’t have that luxury, with the  CPI headline print almost 8%, and actual inflation at least 13%.

Wars don’t drive asset price trends. Central bank policy drives asset prices. Today, central banks simply cannot be easy during this wartime because of the devastating inflation already under way.

Under these conditions, where systemic liquidity stays flat, at best, my bet would be that we will see cataclysmic selloffs in stocks at times. Violent rallies will follow, but will inevitably result in lower highs.

Led by the Fed, the world’s biggest central banks have painted themselves, and us, into a corner. They can no longer continue to tilt the playing field in favor of the continuation of a long-running secular bubble. The consequences would simply be too dire.

On the other hand, there will be equally terrible consequences for maintaining tight policy. And I’m not talking about how much they raise interest rates. That’s a sideshow that is an effect of tight money. The market will tell the Fed what to announce about rates. It must simply rubber stamp the market, lest the public realize that the Fed doesn’t control rates the way that it wants the public to think that it does.

Now the Fed is not printing enough money to absorb virtually all new Treasury issuance, with additional cash left over to support stock prices. If it sticks to this new policy of no QE, money rates will rise. Bond prices will fall and yields rise, margin calls will go out. Stock prices will fall. More margin calls will go out. And so on.

But only when consumer prices start to fall will the Fed be able to resume QE. By then, asset prices should be much lower than they are today. Therefore, I will continue to focus on looking for good short to intermediate term stock xxxx xxxxx (subscriber version).. I would continue to xxxx xxxxx (subscriber version). the bond market xxxx xxxxx.

Even bondholders who hold to maturity will get robbed. Inflation will eat them alive.

Will gold be a long term hedge for all of it? In theory, it should be, but we all know about the difference between theory and practice. Meanwhile, the long term charts of gold and some gold mining stocks look more bullish.

I’ll continue to use technical analysis in the Gold Trader reports to try to identify when this gold bull breakout is overdone. And I’ll continue to look for good entry points for getting long the mining stocks.

Meanwhile, none of this has come as a surprise. We were forewarned.

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Withholding Tax Surge in February was All Inflation

Federal tax collections looked strong for the full month in February.

Don’t be fooled. It was an illusion due to a calendar effect and inflation.

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That’s a sudden, dramatic sea change from the strong growth path of the past 6 months or so.

This bodes ill for my expectation that a booming economy would boost tax revenues to help offset the amount of new Treasury issuance that the market would need to absorb. Even taking that optimistic assessment of tax collections into account, I had expected the market to still be unable to digest all the new supply without the Fed doing the lion’s share of it. I had still expected an ongoing bear market in Treasuries.

Now the situation looks even worse, and the short term flight to safety rally isn’t helping the situation.

Here’s why (subscriber version).

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Liquidity With Eyes Glued to Ukraine

I’ve been doom scrolling my newsfeeds for the past few days, not getting much work done. What a catastrophe. War in Europe, just 120 miles from where I was living a few short weeks ago.

I just communicated with a Ukrainian friend who lives in Kyiv and owns a number of apartments there. She left the city with her family on Thursday, for what she felt was greater safety in the west of the country. She said that the Russians are shelling and firing missiles at civilian targets indiscriminately, and that many ordinary people have died. She called Putin crazy. Then she noted how proud she was of her countrymen for their firm resistance.

I made several friends in Eastern Europe during my 26 months living there. I got to know their attitudes toward Putin and the Russians. My friends are all older people. They lived for decades under Russian domination. They love freedom and they hate the Russians viscerally. They will never surrender, even if Russia finally dominates in this conflict and subjugates them.

The question for us here is how this will impact monetary policy. We already know that the Russian central bank will be blocked from moving money, and that some Russian banks will be blocked from accessing the international payments system. No doubt this chaos will trigger a roundabout detour in the Fed’s tightening policy.

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But will they actually reverse and return to QE? We’ll have to see what’s next. I would suspect that most of the easing would be directed at their cohort, the ECB, and other central banks. My guess is that they won’t immediately return to outright QE, pumping money into Primary Dealer accounts again, at least not right away.

The Fed is boxed in. It faces the prospect of an international financial crisis. It faces the reality of 40 year record inflation that has the prospect of worsening. We’ll watch what the Fed says because it will lead us to what they’ll probably do. Although in emergencies, the doing comes first. And markets respond to the doing, not the talking, despite what the Fed and the high priests of Wall Street want you to think.

So unless they pump money directly back into the markets via buying securities from Primary Dealers, it won’t reverse the course of the financial markets. Bond prices will still xxxx xxxxx (subscriber version). and yields xxxx xxxxx. Stock prices will have their usual April seasonal bump from tax revenues being used to pay down Treasury debt for a few weeks. Then they’ll xxxx xxxx.

I believe that unless the Fed returns to buying paper from the dealers, that course is set. If they do return to QE, I’ll wait and see what the market response is. Normally I’d say it would be a go, bullish. But the dealers still have the option of simply paying down debt with the proceeds of selling their Treasuries and MBS to the Fed. If they were to do that, game over.

Meanwhile, I say what I’ve been saying for the past 18 months. I would continue to xxxx xxxxx (subscriber version) bond market. If I had any long term bonds in my portfolio, which I don’t, I’d xxxx xxxxx.

There are, of course, ways to xxxx xxxxx the bond market. I’d rather xxxx xxxxx stocks. Just my preference.

Stocks will have rallies. I’ll use the TA to xxxx stocks for swing trades when they look good for that. I’ll continue to report weekly on that, and the overall technical market outlook in the Technical Trader reports.

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Primary Dealers Are STILL Positioned WRONG!

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Not much has changed since our last look at Primary Dealer data 4 weeks ago. The script is playing out. It’s Greek tragedy, because we know what’s coming. I’ll recount what we’ve already said, and add plot embellishments from current data that the Fed posted Thursday, that’s up to date through 10 days ago.

The bottom line is that the financial market is moving towards a crisis. Fast. It will continue to do so as the Fed cuts QE first to zero, then goes in reverse. It will do so even more as the Fed shrinks its balance sheet by allowing maturing paper to be paid off rather than rolled over. If they do that, the pressure on on Primary Dealers will only get worse. They have not established the net short positions needed to manage it.

On average, their positioning is not good for a decline in bond prices (rise in yields.) Some Primary Dealers are probably well positioned. That means that some, if not most, are not. Those who are not well positioned are almost certainly already in trouble.

This won’t end well.

This report has the charts and analysis to prove it.

I’ve opined to stay away from the bond market for the past 18 months. Has that now changed? And what about stocks?

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Fed Gets the Inflation It Wanted, But Wait There’s More!

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The Federal budget deficit is shrinking as the economy experiences an inflationary boom. This is just what the Fed was hoping for, but inflation has obviously gotten away from them. It will only get worse as the lagging rent component of CPI will push the total index higher, even if and when the other components begin to moderate.

The rent of shelter and owner’s equivalent rent that’s based on it make up about 40% of Core CPI. Those two components are not based on real time market rents. They’re based on a survey of renters, asking them what they’re paying. The OER is derived from that as a base, and then adjusted from time to time by asking homeowners how much they thought their houses would rent for… As if they knew.

This isn’t merely a dumbass way to measure rent inflation, it’s fraud. Contract rents are usually adjusted upward at a rate far below the increase in market rent. That’s because landlords like to keep good tenants in place rather than incur the friction costs of raising the rent too much and having them leave. It costs money to find a new tenant, and spruce up the unit.

So when the BLS asks tenants what they’re paying, it does not get the full effect of the currently soaring rents. Apartment List does a national rent report showing rents up 17.8% year over year. BLS has imputed the rent component of CPI at 4.1%. At 40% of core, this difference means that the BLS is understating total Core CPI by roughly 5.5 percentage points. That’s obscene. It’s an affront to human intelligence.

But CPI was never intended to measure inflation. That’s why they took home prices out of the index in 1982. CPI was always intended as a tool for indexing government wages and benefits, and industrial labor contracts. In the 1970s indexing got too expensive as home prices surged. So they worked out a way to remove house prices and falsify the housing component of CPI beginning in ‘82.

Now, the Fed is devaluing the mountain of debt out there. Bond holders will get a small fraction of their purchasing power back if they hold to maturity. And if they don’t, and sell along the way they’ll get killed on the capital loss as a result of collapsing bond prices.

We saw this coming since about a month after the bond market turned in August 2020. I don’t think it will get better any time soon, although certainly there will be bond rallies from time to time. Still consistent with my message of the past 18 months, they’ll be xxxx xxxxx (subscriber version).

Meanwhile, the budget deficit will narrow as long as the economy booms. That will reduce Treasury supply. But it won’t reduce it to $20 billion a month. Maybe it will fall to an average of $60 billion per month as some forecasts suggest. Maybe it won’t. I don’t know. The economy is booming at the moment, and there’s no reason yet to expect a slowdown.

But it doesn’t matter. Because the market has shown that it can only absorb $20 billion per month while the Fed kept bond prices stable and suppressed by buying or funding $180-$200 billion per month in net new supply.

Now, if the Fed isn’t buying, and the market can only absorb $20 billion per month, with supply even as low as $60 billion, that’s $40 billion in excess supply that the market can’t take at a stable bond price.

Therefore, bond prices will xxxx xxxxx (subscriber version) and so will stocks, as they get xxxx xxxxx . They’ll be xxxx xxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx on leveraged funds who hold both stocks and fixed income. And they’ll get xxxx xxxxx because eventually rising yields will force some money managers to xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxx.

There will be no xxxx xxx xxxxx, except to xxxx xxxxx (subscriber version). I’ll continue to look for xxx xxxx trading opportunities in the Technical Trader reports. I’ll leave xxx xxxx the bond market to whale hedge fund professionals.

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FREE REPORT – Proof of How QE Works – Fed to Primary Dealers, to Markets, To Money

Don’t Be Fooled, The Economy is Still Growing And Still Bearish

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Withholding Tax collections remained strong in January. A sharp drop in the year to year change was due to an increase in the base of comparison a year ago, and is not a sign of economic weakening. At least not yet.

Withholding collections should be at or near the trough of their usual 2-3 month cycle. So the ADP private payrolls collapse notwithstanding, and regardless of what the BLS says this morning, jobs growth is not decelerating. At least not yet.

But even if the economy is strong and the market must only absorb $80 billion per month of expected new supply versus the $$150 billion -$200 billion per month of the past couple of years, $80 billion is still more than enough to disrupt the markets if the Fed isn’t buying.

Here’s why (subscriber version).

We know that the Fed was usually absorbing or funding about 85-90% of total supply, leaving the market to absorb the rest. That was enough to suppress the 10 year yield at or below 1.3%. At the time, new issuance was averaging around $200 billion per month. So the market was only absorbing $20-30 billion per month, outright. The Fed was buying or funding the rest.

When the debt ceiling was reimposed last year, supply was restricted, but the Fed maintained QE at the same pace. That meant that it was funding more than 100% of supply for a couple of months. That excess cash was sloshing around in Primary Dealer accounts. They put it to use by accumulating, marking up, and distributing stocks to a fevered customer base of institutions, hedge funds, and small traders. That caused the meltup in stock prices.

The arithmetic on Treasury supply versus market demand tells us that the average supply of $80 billion per month is more than the maximum of $30 billion per month that buyers were absorbing directly while holding bond prices stable. In other words, $30 billion in supply was what the market could bear without prices falling and yields rising. The Fed subsidized the rest.

Hence, without Fed buying,we should expect  …. (subscriber version).

And that’s with an expanding economy and growing tax revenues. If the economy contracts on the heels of market dislocations, that will only exacerbate the situation.

In order to absorb the Treasury supply, dealers, investors, and traders must either take on more debt, or liquidate some of their existing holdings, whether Treasuries or stocks. I suspect, based on the evidence of the past two months, that …. (subscriber version). For that reason, I’m focused on selecting swing trade chart picks on  …. (subscriber version). in the Technical Trader weekly reports.

I’ll keep you updated on the developments and outlook. Get the full story in the subscriber version.

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FREE REPORT – Proof of How QE Works – Fed to Primary Dealers, to Markets, To Money

Now We Reap the Whirlwind of the Fed’s Malfeasance

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There’s more evidence in the weekly data on the biggest US banks .of the sea change in psychology and financial conditions that is triggering this bear market environment

The Fed is mandated to control inflation. That means that it has no choice but to follow the conventional economic prescription for doing so. Tight money.

Tight money means death, destruction, and chaos, given how much debt and leverage now overburden the banking system in general, and the Primary Dealers in particular. As they become increasingly stressed, the effect will show up in the markets as lower prices. That will increase the stress, and so on.

The Fed will have its hands tied as long as the CPI and PCE measures remain elevated. Therefore, a resumption and continuation of the crash that has already begun in both stocks and bonds is baked in. It won’t be a straight line. There will be rallies, and they will represent profit opportunities for those willing to short them when they run out of steam.

The big surprise in this data is the evidence that both Primary Dealers and money managers are already hoarding cash. This is a reversal of their past behavior of immediately redeploying cash when speculation and bullishness ruled.

If this is the new mindset, we’re about to reap the whirlwind. Here’s what to do, along with the supporting charts, data, and analysis to help you understand what’s really going on behind and beyond Powell’s tortured dissembling.

Find out what to expect now and what to do about it in this report.

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FREE REPORT – Proof of How QE Works – Fed to Primary Dealers, to Markets, To Money

Primary Dealers No Longer in Remulak-CORRECTED

Correction: In paragraph 4 I have corrected the line about the dealers’ net position to “net long.” In the original version I inadvertently wrote “net short.” That was an error. Sorry for the confusion! 

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The Fed provides us with a tremendous amount of information and data. Some of it is highly useful. Most is not, from my perspective of trying to figure out how it will influence, or even to some extent control, market direction.

One area of useful information is the data that the New York Fed publishes every week with a 9 day lag on Primary Dealer positions and financing. The dealers run the markets, after all, so it’s good to have some insight into their positioning and leverage. It can, at times, give us a heads up that trouble may be brewing. We saw that over the past year as the dealers began to reduce their massive, and massively leveraged, fixed income portfolios.

I have pointed out that that was a huge problem, because a decline in bond prices could put them under water again, just as during the pandemic panic of March 2020. The problem was so big then that the even more massive Fed bailout looked as though it wasn’t working for about 8 days. Then it did work, and the market turned. But it was a close call.

In recent months we saw the decline in the dealers bond positions, but they were still net long and still leveraged. I warned that as bond prices fell and yields rose, their profits would be pressured, and if it continued, their capital could be wiped out again.

The dealers are really just hollow shells acting as strawmen for the Fed, buying Treasuries from the US government, and MBS from Fannie and Freddie and the FHA on the Fed’s behalf. Meanwhile they play side games accumulating, marking up, and marketing all manner of other assets, particularly stocks.

But now the Fed is getting out of the buying business. No more backstopping the dealers with constant massive funding. Meanwhile, the dealers are still REQUIRED, by virtue of their status as Primary Dealers, to still buy Treasuries.

How exactly will they be able to do that without steadily being cashed out by the Fed to the tune of a hundred and some billion per month, month in and month out?

The Fed will probably tell us tomorrow that it’s going to zero purchases after March.  The dealers must keep buying. There are only two ways they can fulfill that responsibility. They’ll either have to sell stuff first. Stuff, as in other Treasuries, other fixed income instruments, OR, drum roll please…… Stocks! Or they will need to borrow more money, that is, increase their leverage even more.

We’ve seen all of those processes in action in the past two weeks. We’ve also seen them report lower than expected profits. Why? Because they’re getting their asses kicked on those massively leveraged net long positions in fixed income.

And the Fed thinks that it can just withdraw from supporting the market with its massive money printing operations to buy virtually all of the debt the US government issues? Well as I told you before, oh, you can’t do that!

This little demonstration we’ve gotten over the past two weeks is just a taste of what’s to come until the market again forces the Fed to reverse course. We don’t know where or when that will be, so for now we just rely on Rules Number One and Number Two.

  1. Don’t fight the Fed. and,
  2. The trend is your friend aka, don’t fight the tape

Bounces in both the bond and stock notwithstanding, the Fed’s policy is clear, and the trend is clear.

In the last version of this Primary Dealer update in December I wrote, “At the very least, we need to be prepared for a sharp selloff in stocks, and what should turn into a resumption of the bear market in Treasuries.” 

Nailed it.

Find out what to expect now and what we’re doing about it in this report.

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FREE REPORT – Proof of How QE Works – Fed to Primary Dealers, to Markets, To Money

Publication Schedule Note

I have unfortunately gotten a few days behind schedule on publication this week. I am currently working on a Primary Dealer update which I’ll post tomorrow, at least in part. I will post the Gold Trader update on Wednesday instead of the usual Tuesday.

This week, I’m in the process of getting ready to end my extended stay in Warsaw, to finally realize my long term plan to move to Nice, France next next Monday. That has involved finding a place to stay temporarily. I intend to settle there after these two years of moving around Europe. So I’m also looking for a place to buy once I get there. All of the preparations for the move have been time consuming.

As an aside, if you ever want to come to the South of France, I know it fairly well, particularly Nice and its immediate environs. I would be happy to chat with you about it, and would love to meet if we have the opportunity. You can reach me by the contact form on the support page.

Meanwhile, I’m also in the process of selling my home in Florida. I’m personally managing that remotely. That’s also setting me back time wise.

The last time I sold a house in Florida, I top-ticked the market for my house type in my neighborhood in mid 2005. Hopefully, I’ll be as lucky this time. Last time I sold, I did so directly without an agent. Today, with Zillow, the commissioned sales agent becomes mostly unnecessary. With online selling so prevalent today, and someone available to let prospective buyers in, it’s well worth it to have buyers contact me via a website.

The downside is that getting the information out, and taking calls has interrupted my workflow, which is frustrating because I want to give you consistent, high quality service. So I do apologize for being a few days later than usual in getting these reports out to you. I’ll do my best to stay as close to the regular schedule as I can during these transition weeks.

And I’ll try to make up for what I can’t do in quantity, by increasing the quality!  😁

As always, thanks for your patience and support!

Lee

Fed Will Administer Volckera to Cure Inflation Pandemic, and We’ll All Die

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It’s that time of the month and that time of the quarter when all should be well for the markets. Except it’s not.

“That time of the month” is the Fed’s regular once a month MBS settlement week at mid month. This month it runs January 13-20, with total settlements of $90 billion. That’s still a big number, but it isn’t doing much good. And it will shrivel over the next several months as the Fed cuts new MBS purchases and replacement purchase shrivel due to rising mortgage rates. Therefore, right now is as good as it gets for the bond market, and secondarily for stocks.

It’s also the week for quarterly estimated Federal income taxes to come in from individual filers and corporations. That shrinks the monthly deficit in January. In normal times it would result in a surplus for the month. Typically the Treasury would then pay off some maturing T-bills, and the holders of those bills would be stuck with excess cash. Some of them roll that out to longer dated paper and a few even buy stocks. So it’s typically a short term bullish seasonal influence around the third week of January.

This year, not so much. The Treasury still is trying to refill its cash account and has $160 billion to go to reach its stated goal of holding $650 billion in cash. So the “January effect,” which is really just bullish seasonality resulting from the regular January T-bill paydowns, looks like a non starter this year. The performance of the stock and bond markets so far in January are a testament to that.

If the market doesn’t perk up over the next few days, then here’s what we have to look forward to.

February will be worse. xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx (subscriber version). February always runs the largest cash deficit of the year as tax receipts dwindle and cash outlays mushroom due to the February tax refund bulge. The Treasury often draws from its cash account to pay for that, rather than issue new debt. But this year, the Treasury is trying to raise more cash. There’s going to be a ton of new Treasury supply in February and that will pressure not only the xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx, but should have a secondary impact on xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx. This report describes those impacts, and their timing.

My mantra is the same. I’m xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx (subscriber version) bonds. I’m looking for stocks to short over the next few weeks for what should be a bearish month in February. I’ll post those in Technical Trader updates as they come up.

With the Fed cutting QE to zero, or so it says, the rest of the year could be xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx(subscriber version). The Fed is worried about inflation. Rightfully so. A little too late, but what else is new.  Might it now be willing to pull a “Volcker,” allowing rates to soar, and allowing the chips to fall where they may? If they dare try it, the market’s retribution will be xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx.

I’ll keep you updated on the developments and outlook. Get the full story in the subscriber version.

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FREE REPORT – Proof of How QE Works – Fed to Primary Dealers, to Markets, To Money

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