Category: US Treasury Market and Tax Revenue Trends

Dealers cut back their fixed income inventories ever so slightly over the past month. They also increased their hedges, but again, slightly. They are still near historical record net long positions, and still carry historic levels of leverage.

With a bulge in Treasury supply on the way, is this where the bond market might trigger them throwing up their hands and saying WTF, despite the Fed?

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Also, I have republished Thursday’s Treasury market update due to a faulty posting with  links to an earlier report. Those errors have have now been corrected. I apologize for the delay!

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Federal revenues softened in December. That could be just a blip, or it could be the first signs of a looming recession. It’s bullish if it is, and bullish if it isn’t. Here’s why everything is bullish.

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Circumstantial evidence suggests that the Primary Dealers are in big trouble. The 10 year yield holds the key. Here’s what to look for.

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Federal tax collections were robust in November, signaling that the US economy is perking along. But Trump runs the Federal Goverment the way he ran his casinos into the ground.

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The Wall Street captured media likes to tell us that there’s just a small plumbing problem in the money market.

But the fact is that it’s not a “little plumbing problem.”  It’s much bigger. The Fed knew it. You don’t pump $337 billlion in cash into the market in 2 months for nothing.

Here’s the big picture, and what comes next, like forever maybe.

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