Federal revenues fell in October for the first time since February. And outlays rose, widening the deficit. The Fed raised its ante in response. Here’s what this means and what you should do about it.
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The US Treasury daily tax data showed weak revenue and soaring outlays in October. The deficit is soaring, but the Fed is monetizing every penny of it and then some, leaving the Primary Dealers with plenty of cash.
Here’s why this is like the Fed piloting a Boeing 737 Max 800. It is exactly the same thing.
No. I mean it.
Seriously.
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Private demand for US Treasury securities collapsed in September, forcing the Fed to first finance purchases, and then to buy Treasuries outright. The market is broke and broken, and that has yooge implications for you as an investor or trader.
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The US Treasury daily tax data suggests that the US economy is at least slowing. That means already yooge deficits will grow. Treasury supply will grow with it. How much QE will be enough to keep asset prices inflated?
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Net new Treasury supply is receding to the “new normal,” averaging around $100 billion per month. We know we have a problem when a hundred bill is “normal.”
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The game has changed radically in the past two weeks, so it does not matter one iota what the economy is doing. It’s the debt, Stupid. Or the stupid debt. Or the stupid economists, central bankers, and Wall Street crowd. Actually, it’s all of the above. Here’s why, and what to do about it.
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The trend is your friend, and the Fed has gone soft. And traders know it. But there may be trouble in Primary Dealer Bond Land.
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The Treasury has been pounding the market with supply since the debt ceiling was lifted in early August. Yet stock and bond markets have both rallied.
It’s a miracle! A leveraged levitation act!
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Withholding taxes soared for most of August, far in excess of indicated jobs growth. But the Treasury hasn’t even started to rebuild its cash account. Here’s what that means.
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The Treasury and the Fed are colluding to boil the bond investor frogs on a sunny sidewalk.
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Lee Adler