Category: 3 – Gold Trader

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Gold Boring trading ranges are often long term bullish. But this is gold. Cycles remain mixed with still no sign of an imminent breakout from the trading range. Short term, the most likely direction is xxxx xx xxxxx (in subscriber version).

On the very long term monthly chart, gold nears the end of December at a critical trend area around 1790. If it ends January below that, it’s in danger of falling into the xxxx  xxxxx (in subscriber version).

HUI – HUI remains locked in a range with no sign of an imminent breakout. A 13 week cycle up phase is flat and is ideally due to last xxxx xx xxxxx (in subscriber version). There’s no sign that longer cycles will xxxx xx xxxxx (in subscriber version).  A 10-12 month cycle high is ideally due between xxxx xx xxxxx.  If there’s no upside breakout before that, the rest of the year would set up xxxx xx xxxxx.  On the long term weekly chart HUI is holding precariously at the 6 month cycle MA. xxxx xx xxxxx are the parameters to watch this week for signs of big trouble.

On the ultra long term monthly chart HUI remains entrenched in a 16 month downtrend. Ultra long term momentum remains precariously neutral. If HUI ends December below xxxx (in subscriber version) the target could be xxxx–xxxx in the first quarter of 2022. Even if above xxxx, it would still face major resistance in the xxxx range. It would need to break that to end the downtrend.

Chart Picks – Two weeks ago, we added 3 picks to the list, and they’ve done ok as shown in the table below.

Today, there were 4 buys and 31 sells from the swing trade screens of 52 gold mining stocks from Monday’s action. The rest had no signal. The big edge to the sell side isn’t a good sign. Even the 4 charts with buy signals weren’t inspiring. So I added no new picks.

Because of the weakness in the screening data and the fact that most stocks remain in longer term downtrends. I’ve added tight stops to the existing picks.

Picks closed out over in November-December had an average gain of 10% on an average holding period of  46 calendar days.

See table and charts (subscriber version).

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The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are for informational and entertainment purposes, and illustrative of one approach. Nothing in this report is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or suitable for you.

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Gold shows all the signs of going nowhere fast. Cycles are juxtaposed and the price is locked in a tight range. The 13 week cycle is due for an upturn in the next xxxx (in subscriber version), which would be conducive to a run to at least xxxx, but it would need to clear xxxx to get a real bull move started.. A breakdown below xxxx would be a bearish sign as it would complete a head and shoulders top pattern with a measured move target of around xxxx.

On the very long term monthly chart, gold nears the end of December at a critical trend area around 1790. If it ends January below that, it’s in danger of falling into the xxxx (in subscriber version).

HUI – The 13 week cycle appears to have joined shorter cycles in an up phase. It’s ideally due to last 6-10 weeks but is due to remain flat. There’s no sign yet that longer cycles will turn xxxx (in subscriber version), .  On the long term weekly chart HUI is holding precariously at the 6 month cycle MA.

On the ultra long term monthly chart HUI remains entrenched in a 16 month downtrend. Ultra long term momentum remains precariously neutral. If HUI ends December below xxxx (in subscriber version). The target could be xxxx–xxxx in the first quarter of 2022. Even if above xxxx, it would still face major resistance in the xxxx range. It would need to break that to end the downtrend.

Chart Picks – There are 11 buys and 2 sells from the swing trade screens of 52 gold mining stocks from Tuesday’s action. The rest had no signal. I looked at the charts, and, in a change from recent weeks, there were 3 charts where I liked the setups. I’ll start tracking them as buys as of this morning’s open.

New Buys: xxxx, xxxx, xxxx, (in subscriber version).

There were no open picks over the last week as the last one had been stopped out. Picks closed out over the past month had an average gain of 10% on an average holding period of  46 calendar days.

See table and charts (subscriber version).

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are for informational and entertainment purposes, and illustrative of one approach. Nothing in this report is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or suitable for you.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

Weak short term cycle up phases are in danger of early breakdowns  The 13 week cycle is due to remain in a down phase for xxxx (in subscriber version), with a projection of xxxx (in subscriber version). A breakdown below xxxx  would be a bearish sign as it would complete a head and shoulders top pattern with a measured move target of around 1650.

Gold begins December below a couple of key trendlines on the monthly chart. It would need to end the month comfortably above xxxx to reduce the risk of another slide that could carry into the xxxxx. Conversely, if it ends the month above xxxx, that would be a bullish sign.

As for the mining stocks, The short cycle up phase is in danger of an early breakdown, as the 13 week cycle down phase targets xxxx – xxx (in subscriber version).

There are 13 buys and 3 sells from the swing trade screens of 52 gold mining stocks from Tuesday’s action. The rest had no signal. I looked at the charts, and, once again, these buy signals did not impress me as anything more than a dead cat bounce that would probably fizzle out. I decided to wait for better setups before re-entering. This may require some patience.

The last remaining pick from the most recent group hit its stop over the past week and was closed as of the stop price with a loss of 4.4%. Previous picks closed out over the past month had an average gain of 13.4% on an average holding period of  48 calendar days.

See table and charts (subscriber version).

Subscribers, click here to download the report.

The strategy and tactics suggestions in this report are for informational and entertainment purposes, and illustrative of one approach. Nothing in this report is meant as personalized investment advice and you should not construe it as such. No representation is made that it is the best approach, will be profitable, or suitable for you.

Subscription Plans

Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!

This report will be posted on Wednesday morning instead of Tuesday this week. I will be on the road all day. I usually travel by train, where I can get the report done. But with the pandemic raging here in Poland, on this trip I have driven.

Thanks for your patience. See you Wednesday!

Lee

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The 13 week cycle up phase aborted early and the pullback has negated the base breakout. When that happens there’s usually a recovery before a second high that confirms the top. I want to remain optimistic that this will only result in a mild correction/consolidation. As long as the 10-12 month cycle indicators continue to signal an up phase, that’s where I’ll give the benefit of the doubt.

Here’s what the current up to the minute charts say about that (subscriber version).

The HUI mining stock index 6 month cycle is probably topping out. But with the 10-12 month cycle due to stay in an up phase for at least 12 more weeks, I’ll give the benefit of the doubt to the 6 month cycle down phase playing as a consolidation, rather than deep decline. The parameters to watch on that are here. (subscriber version).

Today, there are 2 buys and 13 sells from the swing trade screens of 52 gold mining stocks. This followed 2 buys and 6 sells last week, on the heels of a flood of buy signals the week before. That suggested the possible onset of a new upleg.  Now we’re in a correction.

Could it be something worse? Maybe, so I’m putting stops on all picks, but with a little wiggle room to allow for a little more dipping and then hopefully recovery. I’ll see on the recovery if it’s too weak, and close out picks where the charts call for it. But for now, I want to give them time to allow for recovery.

Current open picks got crushed with the sector as a whole, ending the week with an average gain of just 14.1% on an average holding period of 41 calendar days. That was down from an average gain of  21% with an average holding period of 34 calendar days.

I didn’t see any charts I wanted to add this week. I will stick with existing picks, with stops added as shown on the table.

See table and charts (subscriber version).

Subscribers, click here to download the report. 

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Try Lee Adler’s Gold Trader risk free for 90 days!