By early Monday morning, the ES futures were trading at 2966, and had traded as low as 2925. 2950 is now critical support. If New York fails to hold that, then the market would be in crash mode again. What would the target of that be? And what if 2950 holds? Is it still bearish?
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Cycle alignments are still mostly bullish, but now extended. The 6 month cycle remains bullish, and already stratospheric cycle projections for the S&P and QQQ have gone even higher.
How much more can an erstwhile bear take? How much more should they? Here are some suggestions.
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The Fed is no longer pumping enough money into dealer accounts to sustain bull markets in both stocks and bonds, and it has tried to steer investors out of stocks and into Treasuries. It doesn’t matter. Rising markets create their own liquidity until they don’t. It’s called margin. Technical analysis shows us the effects of that, tells us what the trend is, and indicates when it might be reversing.
The trend is up, and there’s no sign of reversal yet. However, after reviewing my chart pick screens I came up with twice as many shorts as longs. Is that my bias, or are those individual charts trying to tell us something, the first canary singing?
Here’s what we’re watching.
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Bullish indications mean that we must assume that the bulls remain in control until proven otherwise, regardless of the bearish liquidity forces (See latest Liquidity Trader report) over the next three weeks. A bull move in stocks would raise the specter of a selloff in the bond market to support a stock rally, because there won’t be enough cash around to support rallies in both. But that’s not our problem. We just need to be on the right side of the move, whatever it is.
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The market has now been rangebound for 5 weeks, leaving the cycle picture muddled. Wave amplitude remains relatively high, while frequency has increased. If the recent pattern holds, the market would top out on Thursday. But what if it doesn’t cooperate. Here’s what to look for to signal what comes next.
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Stocks are selling off this morning but the trend still favors the bulls. Here are the parameters to watch that would confirm, or signal a change.
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I am rescinding the comments I made last week about the long term trend. The Fed’s commitment to maintaining a bullish trend in stocks is now in doubt, and the long term indicators on the market index charts are ambiguous.
The outlook is rife with uncertainty. We don’t know when or if the Fed will re-deploy its tactical carpet bombing of deeply embedded, indigenous bearish forces.
It’s like the Viet Nam war. The Fed has overwhelming firepower, but it may not be committed to using it because of the astronomical long term cost fighting an entrenched enemy. We need to watch to the technical indicators closely to try to determine what each side is doing and will do, and which might have the upper hand.
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Massive Fed intervention has once again tilted the long term playing field. Evidence is increasing that we will not see the March low materially exceeded in nominal terms. This may have little meaning in terms of the future purchasing power of a dollar, but at least nominally the worst seems over. The Fed has won this round and is, for now, again in control of the stock market.
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Short term cycles are due for tops and little pullbacks at least. If it doesn’t happen, it would be another sign that the long term cycles are back in up phases. But are these cycles, or just the manifestation of the power of the Fed to create the illusion of a market?
How do you trade it? With one eye on the ground and the other to the sky. Walk this way.
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What happens this week could tell us whether we’re in a bull or bear market.
As of 4:15 AM ET on Monday, virtually all of Thursday’s market gain has been wiped out. The S&P futures were trading at 2742, which would put the S&P cash index back below the centerline of the trend channel. Bears would have a foothold, but it’s where Monday finishes that matters, not where it starts.
Here are the critical parameters and levels you need to know to be positioned correctly.
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Lee Adler