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What If Primary Dealers Are Wrong on Their Bullish Treasury Bet?

Lee Adler

No news isn’t no news. The Primary Dealers are in the same posture they’ve been in. They’re still bullish on bonds and that’s an extremely dangerous situation.

It’s like that warehouse packed with explosives in Beirut. One small fire could ignite a conflagration of biblical proportions.

The dealers continue to maintain historically large fixed income positions. Those positions hit record high prices. They’ve accumulated a good bit of inventory near the highs. They remain highly leveraged. Worse, they’ve reduced their futures hedges significantly. They are positioned for even more or a bullish environment in bonds.

This report gives you the keys to look for.

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Gold and Miners Hit Cycle Projections

Lee Adler

Just one more projection remains to be reached on both gold and the index of gold mining stocks. Meanwhile, 3 of the 4 remaining mining picks hit targets or were stopped out. The list was up 32.7% with an average period of just under 6 weeks.

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Signs Point Higher Until September 8

Lee Adler

The path of least resistance is still up. Cycle projections say the S&P will make new highs, and not just by a little.

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Bullish Macro Liquidity Ends August 20th

Lee Adler

Macro liqudity been bullish since early July. That was no secret. We were fully informed and prepared. And it’s no secret that this balance is about to flip to bearish. Really bearish. Can our beloved Fed get ahead of that curve?

The US Treasury issued its quarterly refunding report this week. So we now know what to expect from the US Treasury. We already knew what the Fed’s plans were. It made its policy pronouncement last week. More of the same. Snooze.

But that expectation is only good for the balance of this quarter, that is, through September. The government’s forecast for debt issuance beyond that, for the last calendar quarter, and maybe even for the next 7 weeks, should be taken with 5 pounds of salt.

The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) does ok for the current quarter when it issues its estimate halfway through the quarter. It helps to know what has already happened for the first half of the quarter. But their look-ahead forecasts to the following quarters are usually revised significantly, and sometimes completely reversed.

So we’ll focus on what we can reasonably expect from now through September. Even though we don’t know how much the government will spend on economic relief.

Here’s the key takeaway.

Open the report to find out what it is, why it is, and what to expect.

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Massive July Tax Haul Boosted Markets, But Fiscal Cliff Dead Ahead

Lee Adler

A recovery in withholding tax collections that began in mid June, ended in the last week of July. The one time annual tax windfall is now fini, and more spending is coming. Here’s what it means for the stock and bond markets.

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Act on real-time reality!

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Gold and Miners Close in on Rising Cycle Projections

Lee Adler

As projections rise, prices are rising to catch up with them as concurrent up phases grow long in the tooth. But momentum and cycle indicators remain bullish. Here are the latest projections and suggestions.

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With This Market, Mistrust Until Verified

Lee Adler

But play both sides. Which is what we’re doing.

Broad market indicators say the market is going higher, but cycle screens say, “Whoa, not so fast.” I don’t know which to believe yet, but our chart picks have us playing both sides, with 6 longs and 5 shorts, in position to profit either way. That’s a little less long than it was. With all the market uncertainty, it has been a profitable strategy to follow over the past 3 weeks.

This report has all the details on how to trade the mistrust.

Technical Trader subscribers, click here to download the report.

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Flies in The Bulls’ Macro Ointment

Lee Adler

Macro liquidity is growing at a historically rapid pace, but much slower than in the second quarter. And there are signs of trouble brewing. Here’s what they are and what to do about them.

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Gold Meets or Exceeds All But a Few Cycle Projections and Conventional Targets

Lee Adler

Gold has met most of the targets we had, but there are still a few left for the short run. Meanwhile, we’re swinging higher with our mining picks.

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Short in the Short Run, Long in the Longer

Lee Adler

Short term cycles are in down phases. There are a couple of clear parameters to watch for signs of whether this will get worse or not. Intermediate cycles appear to be topping out. Again, there are clear parameters to watch for confirmation.

But the long term indications remain bullish, with a brand new price and time projection for the bull market high. It won’t make bears happy, but our chart picks still have 4 shorts along with 7 longs. The bull is no longer a monolith, but it only takes a few big stocks to carry the market averages higher.

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