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Category: 2 – Technical Trader

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Here’s Who Loses When Technical Indicators Are Bullish but Liquidity is Bearish

Lee Adler

Bullish indications mean that we must assume that the bulls remain in control until proven otherwise, regardless of the bearish liquidity forces (See latest Liquidity Trader report) over the next three weeks. A bull move in stocks would raise the specter of a selloff in the bond market to support a stock rally, because there won’t be enough cash around to support rallies in both. But that’s not our problem.  We just need to be on the right side of the move, whatever it is.

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Here’s What to Look For In Market Fraught With Uncertainty

Lee Adler

The market has now been rangebound for 5 weeks, leaving the cycle picture muddled. Wave amplitude remains relatively high, while frequency has increased. If the recent pattern holds, the market would top out on Thursday. But what if it doesn’t cooperate. Here’s what to look for to signal what comes next.

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The COVID19 Bull Market

Lee Adler

Stocks are selling off this morning but the trend still favors the bulls. Here are the parameters to watch that would confirm, or signal a change.

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Less Support from the Fed Forces Re-evaluation of Stock Market

Lee Adler

I am rescinding the comments I made last week about the long term trend. The Fed’s commitment to maintaining a bullish trend in stocks is now in doubt, and the long term indicators on the market index charts are ambiguous.

The outlook is rife with uncertainty. We don’t know when or if the Fed will re-deploy its tactical carpet bombing of deeply embedded, indigenous bearish forces.

It’s like the Viet Nam war. The Fed has overwhelming firepower, but it may not be committed to using it because of the astronomical long term cost fighting an entrenched enemy. We need to watch to the technical indicators closely to try to determine what each side is doing and will do, and which might have the upper hand.

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The Fed Has Won the Battle

Lee Adler

Massive Fed intervention has once again tilted the long term playing field. Evidence is increasing that we will not see the March low materially exceeded in nominal terms. This may have little meaning in terms of the future purchasing power of a dollar, but at least nominally the worst seems over. The Fed has won this round and is, for now, again in control of the stock market.

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The Illusion of a Stock Market

Lee Adler

Short term cycles are due for tops and little pullbacks at least. If it doesn’t happen, it would be another sign that the long term cycles are back in up phases. But are these cycles, or just the manifestation of the power of the Fed to create the illusion of a market?

How do you trade it? With one eye on the ground and the other to the sky. Walk this way.

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What’s the Context, Bear or Bull?

Lee Adler

What happens this week could tell us whether we’re in a bull or bear market.

As of 4:15 AM ET on Monday, virtually all of Thursday’s market gain has been wiped out. The S&P futures were trading at 2742, which would put the S&P cash index back below the centerline of the trend channel. Bears would have a foothold, but it’s where Monday finishes that matters, not where it starts.

Here are the critical parameters and levels you need to know to be positioned correctly.

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Rebound! How to Trade It

Lee Adler

Futures in the pre-market signal an end to the crash. Here’s what’s needed to maintain that and a few trade suggestions to take advantage.

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Was That A 4 Year Cycle Low?

Lee Adler

Massive Fed intervention turned the market, although cyclicality was favorable. The 6 month cycle low was overdue. But is it something more than that?

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Here are More Short Chart Picks as New Projection Points to 1300

Lee Adler

This market is a different breed of cat. Cycles have little or no influence. This is a fundamental collapse of liquidity. Traditional technical analysis is more useful. In that regard, the conventional measured move implication of the breakdown below the December 2018 low is 1350. Other techniques point to that area.

I’ve added a few new shorts to our trades list this week. Our initial pick now has a gain of 32.6% since entry on March 3, using no leverage.  Short sale margin is 50%. You can do the math.

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